The BTH Product Development Research Lab is today one of the major academic players in the domain of model-driven decision support. A total of eight papers collecting current findings have been recently accepted for publication at the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17).
To reduce uncertainty in decisions, engineers experiment with models, such as, exploring what-if scenarios, and thus increase knowledge. Still, because modelling is an idealisation of reality, there is often substantial uncertainty involved, and this decision makers less confident to lean onto models alone when making decisions. The aim of this paper is to conceptualize a design support for improving confidence and validity in models, by communicating uncertainties from modelling and simulation to relevant stakeholders. The paper reports on empirical data from a research profile workshop. The findings illustrate the importance of communicating uncertainties from models between relevant stakeholders in order to drive action. The paper then presents an approach to visualize model maturity levels as well as impact levels in relation to one or several aggregated models. With this approach, focus can move to discuss the knowledge about the knowledge that is created from modelling, and to facilitate discussions on a meta-level about the modelling and simulation. This is exemplified by a test scenario where a multi-disciplinary modelling and simulation of an asphalt roller is presented.
Johansson, C. (2014). Managing uncertainty and ambiguity in gates: Decision making in aerospace product development. International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management, 11(2), pp.21.
Johansson, C., Hicks, B., Larsson, A., & Bertoni, M. (2011). Knowledge maturity as a means to support decision making during product-service systems development projects in the aerospace sector. Project Management Journal, 42(2), 32-50. doi: 10.1002/pmj.20218.
This thesis proposes the application of a knowledge maturity concept at the gates to raise the decision makers’ awareness of knowledge assets.