The BTH Product Development Research Lab is today one of the major academic players in the domain of model-driven decision support. A total of eight papers collecting current findings have been recently accepted for publication at the 21st International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED17).
To reduce uncertainty in decisions, engineers experiment with models, such as, exploring what-if scenarios, and thus increase knowledge. Still, because modelling is an idealisation of reality, there is often substantial uncertainty involved, and this decision makers less confident to lean onto models alone when making decisions. The aim of this paper is to conceptualize a design support for improving confidence and validity in models, by communicating uncertainties from modelling and simulation to relevant stakeholders. The paper reports on empirical data from a research profile workshop. The findings illustrate the importance of communicating uncertainties from models between relevant stakeholders in order to drive action. The paper then presents an approach to visualize model maturity levels as well as impact levels in relation to one or several aggregated models. With this approach, focus can move to discuss the knowledge about the knowledge that is created from modelling, and to facilitate discussions on a meta-level about the modelling and simulation. This is exemplified by a test scenario where a multi-disciplinary modelling and simulation of an asphalt roller is presented.
The paper presents the results of a three-days experiment to test the use of information from a value assessment model and from a knowledge maturity scale in decision making in preliminary design.
Johansson, C. (2014). Managing uncertainty and ambiguity in gates: Decision making in aerospace product development. International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management, 11(2), pp.21.
Bertoni, M., Bertoni, A., & Johansson, C. (2011). Towards assessing the value of aerospace components: a conceptual scenario. i Culley, S., Hicks, B., McAloone, T., & Howard, T. J. (redaktörer), Impacting society through engineering design . (s. 226-235). Glasgow: Design Society. (DS / Design Society; Nr 68).
Kastensson, Å., & Johansson, C. (2011). Decision-making in gates: based on formal basis or gut feeling?. International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 7(2), 140-152.10.1504/IJTIP.2011.043199
Johansson, C., Hicks, B., Larsson, A., & Bertoni, M. (2011). Knowledge maturity as a means to support decision making during product-service systems development projects in the aerospace sector. Project Management Journal, 42(2), 32-50. doi: 10.1002/pmj.20218.
Johansson, C., & Ericson, Å. (2011). Visualization of knowledge maturity for product-service system development. i Chakrabarti, A. (Redaktör), Research into Design. (s. 312-319). Bangalore, India: Research Publishing Services.
The objective of this paper is to discuss agent-based modelling and simulation as decision support in functional product development, and to show example of the approach.
Gated Maturity Assessment is an example where stage-gate decisions are supported with knowledge maturity awareness capabilities.